Dave Nap on CagriSema vs Tirzepatide, Novo Nordisk's Triple Agonist UBT-251, and Retatrutide: Fact Check

Dave Nap on CagriSema vs Tirzepatide, Novo Nordisk\u0027s Triple Agonist UBT-251, and Retatrutide: Fact Check

Dave Nap, host of the On The Pen podcast, broke down three major stories in a single episode: Novo Nordisk slashing semaglutide prices, CagriSema weight loss results losing to tirzepatide in the REDEFINE-4 head-to-head trial, and a new Novo Nordisk triple agonist called UBT-251 posting 19.7% weight loss at 24 weeks. He asks the obvious question — is Novo\u0027s triple agonist better than retatrutide?

This page fact-checks his claims against the published data, press releases, and clinical trial results.

Novo Nordisk Cuts Semaglutide Prices

Nap reports that Novo Nordisk is cutting the list prices of Wegovy by 50% and Ozempic by 35%, effective January 1, 2027, bringing all doses to $675 per month. He clarifies this is the wholesale acquisition cost and won\u0027t directly lower cash-pay prices.

ClaimPublished DataVerdict
Wegovy list price cut by 50%Novo Nordisk press release (Feb 24, 2026): Wegovy list price reduced by approximately 50% effective January 1, 2027.Accurate
Ozempic price cut by 35%Novo Nordisk press release: Ozempic list price reduced by approximately 35%. CNN and CNBC confirmed.Accurate
New list price: $675/month for all dosesNovo Nordisk confirmed $675 monthly list price for Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus.Accurate
This is the wholesale acquisition cost, not what patients payCorrect. WAC is the price to distributors. Patient out-of-pocket costs depend on insurance plan structure.Accurate
Cash-pay prices are not affectedNovo's self-pay programs (e.g., NovoCare) remain separate from the list price reduction. Fierce Pharma confirmed self-pay channels unaffected.Accurate

Nap\u0027s reporting on the price cuts is entirely accurate. He correctly identifies the nuance that list price reductions primarily benefit patients on insurance plans where out-of-pocket costs are tied to list price — particularly those on high-deductible health plans or co-insurance models. His point that the former Novo CEO Lars Jorgensen testified that lowering list prices would not necessarily lower patient costs is also well-documented.

CagriSema vs Tirzepatide: REDEFINE-4 Weight Loss Results

Nap covers the REDEFINE-4 trial results, explaining that CagriSema (cagrilintide 2.4 mg + semaglutide 2.4 mg) was tested head-to-head against tirzepatide 15 mg over 84 weeks. He reports that CagriSema missed its non-inferiority endpoint.

ClaimPublished DataVerdict
CagriSema: 23% weight loss (efficacy estimand)REDEFINE-4 topline results: CagriSema achieved 23.0% weight loss under the efficacy estimand (assuming all patients adhered).Accurate
Tirzepatide: 25.5% weight loss (efficacy estimand)REDEFINE-4: Tirzepatide achieved 25.5% weight loss under the same estimand.Accurate
Treatment regimen estimand: CagriSema 20%, tirzepatide 23.6%REDEFINE-4: Under the treatment regimen estimand (accounting for discontinuations), CagriSema hit 20.2% and tirzepatide hit 23.6%.Accurate
809 adults with mean baseline weight of 114.2 kgREDEFINE-4 enrolled 809 adults with BMI of 30 or greater. Mean baseline body weight was 114.2 kg.Accurate
CagriSema missed non-inferiorityNovo Nordisk confirmed CagriSema did not meet the primary endpoint of non-inferiority to tirzepatide.Accurate
Open-label study for 84 weeksREDEFINE-4 was an open-label, randomized trial over 84 weeks.Accurate

Nap\u0027s coverage of the REDEFINE-4 data is precise. His editorial commentary is also well-balanced — he notes that while a 2% difference may not be clinically meaningful for individual patients, investors interpreted it as a miss for Novo Nordisk. He correctly points out that CagriSema may still be a better option for patients who don\u0027t respond well to tirzepatide\u0027s GIP component.

For a detailed comparison, see Retatrutide vs CagriSema.

Novo Nordisk Triple Agonist UBT-251: Phase 2 Weight Loss Data

Nap introduces UBT-251, a triple agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) being jointly developed by United Biotechnology and Novo Nordisk. He reports 19.7% weight loss at 24 weeks in a Chinese phase 2 trial.

ClaimPublished DataVerdict
UBT-251 is a triple agonist from Novo NordiskUBT-251 is jointly developed by The United Laboratories (TUL) subsidiary United Biotechnology and Novo Nordisk. It targets GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors.Accurate
19.7% mean weight loss at 24 weeksNovo Nordisk/TUL press release (Feb 24, 2026): UBT-251 delivered up to 19.7% mean weight loss after 24 weeks at the highest dose.Accurate
205 Chinese participantsThe press release states the trial enrolled Chinese people with overweight or obesity. Multiple sources confirm approximately 205 participants.Accurate
Mean body weight of 92.2 kgPress release confirms mean baseline body weight of approximately 92.2 kg.Accurate
No plateau observedNovo Nordisk stated the weight loss curve had not plateaued at 24 weeks, suggesting further weight loss possible with longer treatment.Accurate
Placebo group lost 2%Press release: Placebo group showed approximately 2% weight change.Accurate

Nap\u0027s reporting on UBT-251 is accurate. One detail he slightly simplifies: UBT-251 is not solely a Novo Nordisk molecule. It was developed by United Biotechnology (a subsidiary of The United Laboratories) and is being jointly developed with Novo Nordisk under a licensing agreement signed in March 2025.

UBT-251 vs Retatrutide: The Cross-Trial Comparison

Nap makes the inevitable comparison between UBT-251 and retatrutide at 24 weeks, while repeatedly warning that cross-trial comparisons are fragile.

ClaimPublished DataVerdict
Retatrutide achieved up to 17.5% weight loss at 24 weeks (Phase 2)Jastreboff et al. (2023) NEJM: Retatrutide 12 mg group achieved 17.5% weight loss at 24 weeks in a US population with mean baseline weight of ~107 kg.Accurate
Comparing across trials is not a fair comparisonCorrect. Different countries, baseline weights (92.2 vs ~107 kg), populations, dose escalation strategies, and statistical methods make direct comparison unreliable.Accurate and responsible
Novo Nordisk press release vs peer-reviewed dataUBT-251 data is from a topline press release. Retatrutide 24-week data is from a peer-reviewed NEJM publication. This is an important quality-of-evidence distinction.Accurate
HRS-9531 (Chillera) showed 17.2% at 24 weeks in a Chinese populationHRS-9531 (hengrui) is a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist that showed 17.2% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 24 weeks in Chinese participants with baseline weight of ~84.5 kg.Accurate

This is where Nap shines. Rather than making a sensationalized claim that UBT-251 is "better" than retatrutide, he methodically walks through why the comparison is unreliable: different countries, different baseline weights, topline press release versus peer-reviewed data. He even provides a geographically comparable benchmark (HRS-9531 in a Chinese population) to anchor the results regionally — something most commentators skip.

His conclusion that triple agonism consistently pushes weight loss into the high teens by 24 weeks is well-supported by the data across multiple molecules.

For retatrutide\u0027s full Phase 2 and Phase 3 results, see Retatrutide Results.

Saxenda as the Historical Benchmark

Nap uses Saxenda (liraglutide 3.0 mg) as a historical comparison point to illustrate how far obesity treatments have come.

ClaimPublished DataVerdict
Saxenda achieved about 9% weight lossSCALE Obesity trial (2015): Liraglutide 3.0 mg achieved 8.0% mean weight loss at 56 weeks (vs 2.6% placebo). Some analyses report 8-9% depending on the estimand.Approximately accurate
23% weight loss is not good enough to win in today's marketCagriSema's 23% (efficacy estimand) failed to meet non-inferiority against tirzepatide's 25.5%. Investors reacted negatively despite historically impressive results.Accurate

The Strategic Timing

Nap offers an insightful editorial observation: Novo Nordisk cut semaglutide prices on the same day they released the REDEFINE-4 data showing CagriSema lost to tirzepatide. He argues this timing was strategic — the price cuts soften the blow of the trial miss by strengthening Novo\u0027s formulary positioning and insurance access.

This analysis is well-reasoned. Multiple financial analysts and industry reporters (Bloomberg, CNBC, Fierce Pharma) noted the same timing pattern. Lowering the wholesale acquisition cost makes semaglutide more attractive for insurance formularies, which could help Novo maintain market share even as Eli Lilly\u0027s tirzepatide continues to demonstrate superior efficacy.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Dave Nap from On The Pen?

Dave Nap is the host of On The Pen, a podcast and YouTube channel focused on GLP-1 medications and obesity treatment news. He covers clinical trial data, drug pricing, regulatory updates, and patient access issues. He is not a physician but positions himself as a patient advocate and industry commentator. The podcast airs live on YouTube Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

Is UBT-251 better than retatrutide?

It is impossible to say from current data. UBT-251 showed 19.7% weight loss at 24 weeks in 205 Chinese participants (mean weight 92.2 kg), while retatrutide showed 17.5% at 24 weeks in a US population (mean weight ~107 kg). These are different trials with different populations, baseline weights, dose escalation strategies, and statistical methods. As Nap correctly notes, comparing a topline press release to peer-reviewed data is inherently unreliable. Only a head-to-head trial could answer this question. For how retatrutide compares to other drugs, see Retatrutide vs Tirzepatide.

Will the Wegovy price cut make it cheaper for me?

It depends on your insurance. The ~50% list price reduction (to $675/month) primarily benefits patients whose out-of-pocket costs are directly tied to the list price — such as those on high-deductible health plans or co-insurance models. If you already pay a flat copay (e.g., $50), your cost may not change. Self-pay and cash prices through programs like NovoCare are not affected by this change. For more on retatrutide pricing, see Retatrutide Cost and Access.

How much weight loss does CagriSema achieve?

In the REDEFINE-4 trial, CagriSema weight loss reached 23.0% at 84 weeks under the efficacy estimand (assuming full adherence) and 20.2% under the treatment regimen estimand (accounting for discontinuations). These are strong results historically, but they fell short of tirzepatide in the same trial. CagriSema is expected to launch in early 2027. For a detailed comparison, see Retatrutide vs CagriSema.

What is CagriSema vs tirzepatide — which is better for weight loss?

In the REDEFINE-4 head-to-head trial, tirzepatide (15 mg) achieved 25.5% weight loss compared to CagriSema\u0027s 23.0% at 84 weeks. CagriSema failed to meet its primary endpoint of non-inferiority to tirzepatide. However, CagriSema may still be a better option for patients who don\u0027t tolerate the GIP component in tirzepatide. Retatrutide, a triple agonist, has shown even higher weight loss (up to 28.7%) but is still in Phase 3 trials. For how retatrutide compares, see Retatrutide vs CagriSema.

Sources

  • Nap, D. (2026). "NEW GLP3 FROM NOVO NORDISK! BETTER THAN RETATRUTIDE?" On The Pen Podcast. Watch on YouTube
  • Novo Nordisk A/S. (2026). Novo Nordisk announces significant reduction in US list price for Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus. Press release
  • Novo Nordisk / United Biotechnology. (2026). Triple agonist UBT251 delivers up to 19.7% mean weight loss after 24 weeks in phase 2 trial in China. Press release
  • EMPR. (2026). REDEFINE 4: CagriSema Weight Loss Results Compared With Tirzepatide. Article
  • Jastreboff, A.M., et al. (2023). Triple-Hormone-Receptor Agonist Retatrutide for Obesity — A Phase 2 Trial. New England Journal of Medicine. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2301972
  • Pi-Sunyer, X., et al. (2015). A Randomized, Controlled Trial of 3.0 mg of Liraglutide in Weight Management (SCALE). New England Journal of Medicine. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411892

Medical Disclaimer

The content on glp3.wiki is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Retatrutide is an investigational drug that has not been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or any other regulatory agency.

Dave Nap\u0027s podcast is not medical advice. He consistently encourages listeners to have conversations with their own doctors and does not sell or promote grey market products. His reporting in this episode is largely accurate and well-sourced.

Do not use this information to make decisions about your health without consulting a qualified healthcare provider.

This site is not affiliated with Dave Nap, On The Pen, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and Company, or any pharmaceutical manufacturer.

Sources